Archive for the ‘finance’ Category

The 53 startups that will be huge in 2016, according to venture capitalists

Monday, December 28th, 2015

http://www.businessinsider.de/startups-that-will-be-huge-in-2016-2015-12?op=1

 

John Rubino: Feds Will Reverse Interest Rate Hike Soon

Saturday, December 26th, 2015

Wall St for Main St interviewed John Rubino, the editor of Dollar Collapse and author of The Money Bubble. In this podcast, we discussed the Feds decision to raise interest rate and how it will pave way to reversing the hike. We also did a 2015 review where we analyzed the emerging market, Brazil and China collapse and look forward to 2016.

DollarCollapse.com is managed by John Rubino, co-author, with GoldMoney’s James Turk, of The Money Bubble (DollarCollapse Press, 2014) and The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It (Doubleday, 2007), and author of Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom (Wiley, 2008), How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust (Rodale, 2003) and Main Street, Not Wall Street (Morrow, 1998). After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a Eurodollar trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst. During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with TheStreet.com and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications. He currently writes for CFA Magazine.

GoldMoney is the world’s most trusted precious metal custodian and investment firm. Since 2001, we have been serving individuals, families, trusts, and corporations by providing access to physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium for savings and long-term wealth protection.

State of financial markets June 2015

Friday, June 12th, 2015

As the US financial markets have been flat ever since the end of 2014, it’s time to reevaluate money strategies for the nearest future. Right now the portfolio #1 is rebalanced towards Germany, China, S Korea, Mexico, Canada, Japan, Egypt, Sweden, Malaysia, Netherlands, Israel, Austria, Taiwan, Switzerland, Colombia, India, Russia, while the exposure to US equities and index ETFs is reduced. The goal is to hunt for undervalued markets with the lowest interest rates environment. In the US, tech exposure remains strong, among them 3D printing stocks, as well as electronic cigarettes, biotech, superconductors, and various other segments. Lots has changed ever since Ukraine conflict fired on in 2014. Due to various erroneous decisions made by powers at be from all sides, now we’re all are in worse situation ever since the conflict began, while no satisfactory solution is seemed in sight. The oil prices have crumbled, with a bounce back on a shorter time frame, while dollar index rose to high values. For gold market, the main question now is, with all established and emerging geopolitical forces in the world, can the world find stability while maintaining all these systems without significant systemic shocks. If systemic shocks can be avoided (if the global system has a counterbalancing system to take all disbalances into the account), then gold prices will either flat out or even decrease. If the global system does not have the means to counterbalance a possible systemic shock, then gold prices might skyrocket. The answer is, nobody knows if the system is stable enough. Therefore it is wise to keep the finger on the trigger just in case the system falls into some caveat. On currency exchange front, my forex portfolio is currently making ~12% a month, within a year or so I will introduce the resulting chart on this site. The forex system is based on week long timeframes, and a variable size which depends on probability of exchange rate sensitive events. The total gain on all NW is currently clocked at about 4% year to date. Not great, but not bad at the same time.

Till the next report, with best wishes towards your success.

Inherent Idiocy of Systems At Be

Wednesday, August 20th, 2014

Jersey group in campaign to create ‘Bitcoin Isle’

Tuesday, June 24th, 2014

A campaign has been launched to make Jersey a world leader in digital currencies.

Bitcoin payments are already accepted in a handful of places but an industry expert says, if the States allow banks to accept and trade with it, Jersey could become a magnet for new business. Robbie Andrews, of bit.coin.je, an industry body set up to promote and campaign for the currency, wants to create a “Bitcoin Isle”. Treasury Minister Senator Philip Ozouf said he wanted Jersey to be an early leader in the field. There have been issues around the digital currency, including a lack of regulation and concerns over potential for money laundering and other illegal activity.

Read full story at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-27921445

Market drops… on GDP growth

Friday, November 8th, 2013

Today, on 11/7/2013, markets have experienced a significant drop on good news of GDP growth on a speculation that Fed will cut the QE programs. With this in mind, let’s ask us some questions:

  • GDP is measured in dollar amounts per transaction and in total
  • Dollars are created either out of debt or out of direct injection of liquidity (that is, QE)
  • If the current GDP growth is due to creation of new production capacities created by new demand, then dollars counted towards GDP were out of debt creation, which should be a good news for the financial markets
  • If the current GDP growth is due to injection of liquidity, then said injection (QE) should continue to maintain said GDP growth, which again should be a positive sign for the financial markets

So, then, why did the markets drop today?

Blackstone Readies Bonds Backed by Rental Homes

Friday, October 25th, 2013

Investment giant Blackstone Group is preparing to issue the first-ever bonds backed by rental income from single family homes.

Blackstone is the largest owner of single-family homes in the United States, after spending an estimated $7.5 billion to buy 40,000 foreclosed properties.

Deutsche Bank will begin marketing a $500 million offering in the next few weeks, based on the cash flow generated by those rental properties, according to media reports. At least one portion of the issue has received a Triple A rating from one of the top ratings agencies, the Financial Times reported today.

The REO-to-rental business attracted institutional investors in the wake of the market collapse. Funds and REITs spent more than $20 billion to purchase as many as 200,000 homes, Bloomberg estimates. But no group was more active than Blackstone. Earlier this year the company set up its own lending arm to help other groups buy homes to rent.

Securitizing the cash flow from those properties is the logical move for Blackstone, analysts say. It may also develop a new asset class, bringing more liquidity into the market.

“Securitization is the next step in the evolution of the single-family rental business,” Rob Bloemker, chief executive officer of investment firm Five Ten Capital LLC, told Bloomberg. “It brings consistent and conforming standards to lending, which will help bring larger pools of capital in and get comfortable investing in these types of loans.”

Source: WPC, World Property Channel

US Government Shutdown and Debt Limit Standoff

Monday, October 14th, 2013

There are politics and there are economics. Is economical devastation better than prohibition of abortion? I am more conservative politically, but please, put the politicians who are liberal economically the hell away from the ability to rule! Wherever place they were allowed to rule ended up in utter devastation sooner or later (Russia in 90′s is a perfect example, to make things worse Russian liberals are liberal both by politics _and_ economics, unlike USA, where liberalism is split to political in Democratic party and economical in Republican). Bottom line is, one cannot run a country and it’s finances as a business. It would be nice to have no debt, but unfortunately the objective realities of the world economies and money infrastructures are different these days, totally different from last century when USA was able to afford a Great Depression. If USA doesn’t raise the debt limit, it ends in default, and a massive Great Depression scenario which will take half of the world down with it, and, possibly a scenario of a new world war will develop as well. It will be a fatal mistake for the USA.

Dow trends 1970-2013

Tuesday, August 20th, 2013

Above is the chart of Dow Jones Industrials from 1970 to 2013. As can be seen from the chart, if one were to buy at point of time 1 (year 2000) the DOW is still below inflationary line 2. At point of time 4 in 1995, DOW entered the inflationary channel 2, 4. Normally, DOW grows at the trendline 5. Recently, DOW has been growing at a trendline 8, which is parallel to trendline 5. So, if conditions persist, DOW should grow to reach trendline 5 and resume it’s normal growth at around this trendline. Which, basically, means that DOW right now is still undervalued.

Market drops 200 points on… good news on jobs.

Thursday, August 15th, 2013

Well, here we have it again folks… A total misunderstanding by markets of how Fed is planning to conduct it’s monetary policy going forward in future. DOW dropped today 200 points on a good jobless claims report. I know, I know, market is within itself is efficient and basically the price is what it is. But, nevertheless, here is my second unveiling of reasoning behind, uhm, my reasons as to why DOW should continue to grow and why traders and investors (investors at least) should ignore these market fluctuations:

1) First of all, too much free money created by Fed stimulus is not a good thing – it will create too much inflation in the longer term, spiking the interest rates which may lead to catastrophic kind of scenarios. So just directly associating sizes of stimulus versus stock market value is already wrong. Stimulus is needed just enough to create monetary expansion to accommodate for growth of economy.

2) Secondly, continuous maintenance of stimulus at the same size is not realistic – the size has to be controlled, such as, maintained at level, decreased, or increased to accomodate to economical conditions. Combination of zero rates and bond purchases is keeping effectively negative interest rates. This is done to boost demand, for one thing, and, for instance if demand grows due to market forces, the effective rates can be made positive, or, in other words, stimulus size can be reduced accordingly.

3) Thirdly, good news is… good news, not bad news. Just sticking at whether Fed will “taper or not taper” is perhaps a better short term trading decision, but not a good long term investment strategy. Why? Because good news basically means, that the Fed so far has been intelligent enough to conduct it’s monetary policy in such a way so that good news on economy keep on popping up.

In summary, interest rates have always historically needed to be adjusted. Combination of zero interest rates and bond purchase stimulus creates effective negative rates. Should demand pick up due to market conditions, the effective rates needs to be changed accordingly. Fed may reduce the stimulus bond purchases, not cut them alltogether to raise the effective interest rates according to economic realities (in this case, positive ones).

My 2c…

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